Internal Versus External Reasons for the Rand-Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract

Increased exchange rate volatility is an impediment to the health of the economy of a country. Following the 1995 policy shift made by the South African Reserve Bank, from a fixed exchange rate regime to a free floating exchange rate regime; the rand/dollar exchange rate became volatile. The aim of the study was to investigate the forces that lead the exchange rate volatility. In more details, the study looked at the relationship between the rand/dollar exchange rate and its determinants. In terms of the methodology, a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model was used to analyse the relationship between the rand/dollar exchange rate and its determinants. In the short run, the impulse response function results showed that there were no strong bidirectional relationships between the rand/dollar and its determinants between 1995 and 2014. The only significant relationship, in the short run, was found to be between the exchange rate and nominal variables. Another significant impact was that of the exchange rate on the 10-year bond spread. The long-run test results suggested that there is a unilateral relationship between the rand/dollar exchange rate and the 10-year bond spread. The long-run tests results indicated that the rand/dollar exchange rate is indeed an �equity� currency, and is mostly driven by changes in the financial variables.